AGENDA DATE: 1/21/2026
TITLE: 2025 Buildout Analysis Update and AC44 Analysis Tool
SUBJECT/PROPOSAL/REQUEST: Present a market-based evaluation of the 2025 Land Use Buildout Analysis and obtain feedback on the AC44 Analysis Tool
ITEM TYPE: Regular Information Item
STAFF CONTACT(S): Filardo, Barnes, Swartzendruber, Holt, Newberry
PRESENTER (S): J.T. Newberry, Jeremy Goldstein with Line+Grade
LEGAL REVIEW: Yes
REVIEWED BY: Jeffrey B. Richardson
BACKGROUND: On September 3, 2025, the Board of Supervisors received a presentation on the 2025 Land Use Buildout Analysis. This analysis estimated the theoretical capacity of the Development Areas for residential and non-residential uses based on the current land use categories in the Comprehensive Plan. The 2025 Buildout Analysis replicated the same research approach and methodology utilized by the 2022 Buildout Analysis, but used the latest available development information to reevaluate the theoretical capacity of the Development Areas. Both analyses determined that the existing limits of the Development Areas contained enough capacity to theoretically meet the projected future demand of residential and non-residential land uses over a 20-year time horizon (see Attachment A). Nevertheless, both reports also cited several continuing challenges to achieving maximum theoretical buildout across the Development Areas.
On October 15, 2025, the AC44 Comprehensive Plan was adopted by the Board of Supervisors, effective January 1, 2026. The AC44 Comprehensive Plan includes an updated Growth Management Policy, which calls for closer monitoring of the utilization of the Development Areas (see Attachment B).
STRATEGIC PLAN: Quality of Life - Encourage a vibrant community with economic and recreational opportunities that serve all community members.
DISCUSSION: Line + Grade, a local planning and engineering firm, will review the results of the 2025 Land Use Buildout Analysis using a market-based lens. The analytical...
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