AGENDA DATE: 6/1/2022
TITLE:
Title
Comprehensive Plan Land Use Buildout Analysis
BODY
SUBJECT/PROPOSAL/REQUEST: Present a summary of the initial findings from the 2022 Land Use Buildout Analysis
ITEM TYPE: Regular Information Item
STAFF CONTACT(S): Richardson, Walker, Filardo, Rapp, Perkins, Falkenstein
PRESENTER (S): Rachel Falkenstein, Planning Manager
LEGAL REVIEW: Not Required
REVIEWED BY: Jeffrey B. Richardson
BACKGROUND: At a Board work session on November 3, 2021, the Board adopted a Resolution of Intent (ROI) directing staff to begin work on the Comprehensive Plan Update: Albemarle County 2044 (AC44), in accordance with the Project Goals and Phasing Plan (Attachment A). The first phase of AC44 is ‘Plan for Growth’, which is focused on a review and update to the County’s Growth Management Policy. The Growth Management Policy comes from the 2015 Comprehensive Plan. The current policy directs new residential and commercial growth to the designated Development Areas, which currently cover about 5% of the County’s land area.
One element of the AC44 Phase 1 work is to evaluate the current Development Areas to establish a baseline understanding of their potential capacity to accommodate future growth. Staff has been working with a consultant team from Kimley-Horn and Associates to conduct a Land Use Buildout Analysis to understand the theoretical buildout potential of the Development Areas, with a focus on the future land use designations identified in the Comprehensive Plan.
STRATEGIC PLAN: Mission - To enhance the well-being and quality of life of all community members through the provision of the highest level of public service consistent with the prudent use of public funds.
DISCUSSION: The Land Use Buildout Analysis is designed to establish an understanding of the County’s 20-year population growth projections, and the associated need for new housing and businesses, compared with the maximum theoretical buildout of land within the County’s designated Development Areas. The Analysis is based on the Comprehensive Plan’s future land use designations for Development Area parcels, found within the Development Area Master Plans, and recommended densities and intensities associated with each land use category. The Land Use Buildout Analysis utilizes assumptions based on existing conditions, current trends, and historical development patterns within the County to estimate buildout totals for each of five real estate categories: residential, retail, office, industrial, and hotel. The approved and proposed residential development projects, or the ‘development pipeline’ are also included in the residential buildout estimates.
A summary of the methodology, assumptions, and initial findings from the Land Use Buildout Analysis are provided in Attachment B. The Analysis also summarizes some of the limitations of the findings, including some of the challenges associated with developing a property in accordance with the maximum densities identified in the Comprehensive Plan.
Staff will be seeking input from the community and stakeholders on the study’s findings to further supplement this analysis. Following community input and considerations related to equity and climate action, the final Analysis will be used in the evaluation of and possible update to the County’s Growth Management Policy.
BUDGET IMPACT: There is no budget impact associated with this agenda item. The Fiscal Year 2022 budget identified $665,000 from the Board of Supervisors Strategic Priority reserve to fund work associated with the Comprehensive Plan Update and Zoning Ordinance Update.
RECOMMENDATION:
Recommendation
Staff recommends the Board receive and discuss the study’s findings.
ATTACHMENTS:
A - AC44 Phasing Plan & Project Goals
B - Land Use Buildout Analysis - Summary of Initial Findings