AGENDA DATE: 1/21/2026
TITLE: 2025 Buildout Analysis Update and AC44 Analysis Tool
SUBJECT/PROPOSAL/REQUEST: Present a market-based evaluation of the 2025 Land Use Buildout Analysis and obtain feedback on the AC44 Analysis Tool
ITEM TYPE: Regular Information Item
STAFF CONTACT(S): Filardo, Barnes, Swartzendruber, Holt, Newberry
PRESENTER (S): J.T. Newberry, Jeremy Goldstein with Line+Grade
LEGAL REVIEW: Yes
REVIEWED BY: Jeffrey B. Richardson
BACKGROUND: On September 3, 2025, the Board of Supervisors received a presentation on the 2025 Land Use Buildout Analysis. This analysis estimated the theoretical capacity of the Development Areas for residential and non-residential uses based on the current land use categories in the Comprehensive Plan. The 2025 Buildout Analysis replicated the same research approach and methodology utilized by the 2022 Buildout Analysis, but used the latest available development information to reevaluate the theoretical capacity of the Development Areas. Both analyses determined that the existing limits of the Development Areas contained enough capacity to theoretically meet the projected future demand of residential and non-residential land uses over a 20-year time horizon (see Attachment A). Nevertheless, both reports also cited several continuing challenges to achieving maximum theoretical buildout across the Development Areas.
On October 15, 2025, the AC44 Comprehensive Plan was adopted by the Board of Supervisors, effective January 1, 2026. The AC44 Comprehensive Plan includes an updated Growth Management Policy, which calls for closer monitoring of the utilization of the Development Areas (see Attachment B).
STRATEGIC PLAN: Quality of Life - Encourage a vibrant community with economic and recreational opportunities that serve all community members.
DISCUSSION: Line + Grade, a local planning and engineering firm, will review the results of the 2025 Land Use Buildout Analysis using a market-based lens. The analytical model developed by Line+Grade provides different approaches to projecting future demand than the approach used to complete the 2022 and 2025 Buildout Analyses. This new model includes more forward-looking methods, such as incorporating market-based data and projections provided by CoStar, a leading provider of commercial and multifamily real estate information. The previous analyses completed in 2022 and 2025 relied on the development activity from the prior ten years to project future demand.
Staff will also review a draft “AC44 Analysis Tool,” which assess how proposed residential density/ commercial intensity of an individual project compares with the theoretical maximum capacity expected under the Comprehensive Plan’s Land Use Designation for that parcel (see Attachment C). This tool also provides information about how current development proposals align with the goals of Housing Albemarle, the County’s strategic plan for affordable housing. Staff is planning to use the AC44 Analysis Tool as an additional lens to assess how future development proposals advance the density and housing goals of AC44. The AC44 Analysis tool will also assist with the overall long-term administration of the updated Growth Management Policy (see Attachment B). The Planning Commission provided feedback on this tool at their meeting on December 9, 2025.
BUDGET IMPACT: There is no budget impact associated with this agenda item.
RECOMMENDATION:
This executive summary is intended to inform the Board on the Land Use Buildout Model and the AC44 Analysis Tool, address Board questions and receive feedback. No action by the Board is required at this time.
ATTACHMENTS:
A - 2025 Land Use Buildout Analysis Memo
B - Part II of AC44: Growth Management Policy
C - (Draft) AC44 Analysis Tool